Did you know that there were only about 41,000* confirmed cases of the flu in 2018-19 season?
(*this number, based on influenza data from the CDC will be revised & must be off. Per TX Department of State Health Services 2018-19 report, Texas alone had 31,296 positive specimens out of 192,315 tests reported at the end of the 2018-2019 flu season. The same report, however, reiterates the concluding arguments of this article in that the TX season’s 10,020 deaths reported are from death certificate multiple cause of death codes which include pneumonia or influenza. It is my continued understanding that, per publications on the subject from the CDC, that influenza is notoriously under reported on death certificates)
You mean deaths.
No, cases—confirmed cases.
But I thought there were 25 – 80,000 flu deaths every year? Isn’t that true?
Well, a qualified yes–sort of–… keep reading. The past 10 years flu deaths (I’m ball parking) were in the 20-50,000 range, roughly.
That great big 80,000 came from a preliminary estimate for the 2017-18 season which was revised down to 61,000. [1]
Ok, so you’re saying there were maybe 50,000 flu deaths last year…. Then how can there have only been 41,000 confirmed cases of the flu?
Great question with a good answer. That answer is found on this page from the CDC.(2) Those large fatality numbers aren’t off, –they’re good estimates. However, they’re not based on confirmed flu tests, but instead on
1) hospitalizations, death certificates which list pneumonia or influenza , symptoms.
3) stuff beyond my pay grade. They explain it quite well here on this linked page.[2]
What’s your point?
The phrase “Where’d the flu deaths go?!?!” is popular right now, repeated by people referencing this important page from the CDC [3] , with an implied tone of “Aha! Conspiracy! ”.
At the moment, the page only lists 6,514 flu deaths, which comes as a great big surprise to those expecting the huge 20-80,000 numbers floating around social media this year.
So, is there a conspiracy or not?
Ok, Here’s the deal. if you heard that there were 26-70,000 flu deaths in any given year, you did hear correctly. But those numbers never came from Death certificates listing influenza as the cause or from confirmed flu cases. Influenza is so common that its notoriously underreported on death certificates. The stats did come from actual deaths, most often pneumonia, which is caused by the flu, just not influenza confirmed via a test. The test only catches the infection at a short window of time in which people rarely seek treatment. The test has its limitations.
Personally, I was in dire straights for nearly 4 months during the 2018-19 season. I had at least one test for the flu which came back negative. I was short of breath. I took breathing treatments. I was often to the point of being terrified. I went on four rounds of antibiotics, had either a CT scan or MRI of lungs………. yet the wheezing and coughing would not stop… until I took Ipratroprium Bromide… Why that worked? I don’t know. I’m not giving medical advice. Just my story.
And another quick point…. An obvious one but important.
Ok. See Illness doesn’t come with an automatic diagnosis or test. A virus jumps on any biological vehicle it can to replicate and do what viruses do…. but… viruses don’t report themselves to the doctor or the CDC. Its up to human beings to do that. Talk. To. Your. Doctor!
Personal Neglect
Unfortunately, many, especially men– don’t take good medical care of themselves and think they can tough stuff out. I’m one of them with a grand history of suffering due to my lack of self advocacy. Its not up to the doctors to make you well. They can’t read your mind, and your particular illness might turn out to be quite a puzzle. I could fill a couple of books with my medical journey, but it would probably bore you to tears. I digress.
The bottom line? Many folks don’t seek medical treatment & wind up dying from pneumonia—caused by the flu— without diagnosis.
Again, what’s your point? Does this have to do with COVID19?
Absolutely. And its critical that everyone understand the point I’m trying to make.
The number of confirmed COVID 19 deaths is right now is about a hundred shy of 135,000, but the COVID19/ Pneumonia Influenza triad —which includes 6,514 flu deaths—is at 203,909. That 203,909 is from submitted death certificate data which takes some reporting institutions up to 8 weeks to get to the National Center for Health Statistics. So, even as large as that number is, it is still an underreporting of the true death toll.
This means that?
It means the death toll from COVID19 isn’t being exaggerated and it can’t be compared to those flu death numbers. Keep in mind that the 61,000 (which you thought was 80,000) was probably one of the worst years. All of those huge flu death numbers….. 26,000, 12,000, 56,000— are good estimates, mind you, but they are just that… Estimates. The COVID death numbers on the CDC’s Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) page are confirmed straight from Death Certificate data. Many more people have died from COVID/FLU/Pneumonia symptoms this year than are confirmed. IMO, it really is all about the pneumonia.
That’s terrible.
Yes, it is. The flu always did take a heavy toll on the U.S. That didn’t change this year. COVID19 just multiplied it.
What about the economy?…..
Sigh…
[2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
[3] ,https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
(4) https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
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some quotes / questions, copied from pages above, altered for space, emphasis added:
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What methods are used to estimate # of flu illnesses / medical visits in the U.S.?
The numbers of influenza illnesses were estimated from hospitalizations based on …..
Some people with influenza will seek medical care, while others will not. ……
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
What methods are used to estimate the number of influenza-associated deaths in the U.S.?
Why doesn’t CDC base its seasonal flu mortality estimates only on death certificates that specifically list influenza?
Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates. There may be several reasons for underreporting, including that patients aren’t always tested for seasonal influenza virus infection, particularly older adults who are at greatest risk of seasonal influenza complications and death. Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified because the influenza virus is only detectable for a limited number of days after infection and many people don’t seek medical care in this interval. Additionally, some deaths – particularly among those 65 years and older – are associated with secondary complications of influenza (including bacterial pneumonias).
Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified because the influenza virus is only detectable for a limited number of days after infection and many people don’t seek medical care in this interval.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
spygatetimeline 